Why is a 70% Win Rate Unrealistic When Betting on the NFL?

The sport gambling industry is one that lacks regulation, which means anyone can start a company, website or used car salesman persona to begin selling selections. Since there is no regulation, handicappers can tout false records and promises of unimaginable wealth in order to obtain business.

While there are many legitimate and transparent handicappers in the market, there are also an overwhelming amount who use fake names, flashy cars, girls of questionable clothes and morals (we are guessing) and unachievable records to convince fresh or uneducated bettors to purchase their selections.

While this may sound a bit over the top, we often get calls asking why people don’t hit 70 percent of our games such as many of the other services out there. Our answer is always that a 70% win rate isn’t achievable over the long run.

To describe this in more detail, we examined the likelihood that a sports bettor could win 70% of all wagers to illustrate just how unrealistic this is.

For the purposes of this guide, we chose the z-ratio (also known as z-score) to demonstrate how many standard deviations away from“anticipated“ an event is.

Example 1: No Edge

This example presumes a handicapper who historically hits 50% of his games, meaning that the handicapper doesn’t have any edge when picking games. The data assumes 1,000 plays against the spread (using a vig of -110) over a calendar year, across all major US sports.

Read more: sports bookie

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